Dodgers or Mets? Yankees or Guardians? Ohtani and Judge breakouts? LCS predictions

And now there are four teams left.

Preseason, the Dodgers and Yankees were the top picks to compete for their pennants, while the Mets and Guardians were anticipated to rebuild for 2024 after missing the postseason last year.

But that’s irrelevant now, as all four teams are just four wins away from the World Series.

With two intriguing matchups lined up for the League Championship Series, FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner offer their previews and predictions for this round in this week’s roundtable.

1. Who is more likely to make an impact in the LCS after a quiet division series: Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge?

Kavner: I believe both will perform well, but I’ll go with Judge. The last time he faced Cleveland, he hit four home runs in three games and has an OPS over 1.600 against the Guardians this year. While he’ll be up against one of the top bullpens in baseball, I think he can capitalize on that rotation and break out of his postseason slump. His final game against the Royals was a positive sign.

Thosar: Judge. The Yankees will likely be very confident heading into the ALCS against the Guardians, having beaten them in all three playoff matchups since Judge’s rookie season in 2017. In their latest postseason clash, the Yankees eliminated the Guardians in the 2022 ALDS, thanks in part to homers from Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Additionally, Judge has a .947 OPS in 37 career games against Cleveland, and he looked much more like himself in the last game against the Royals. He seems poised for a breakout moment in the postseason.

2. Whose pitching are you more confident in: the Dodgers’ or the Mets’?

Thosar: The Mets’. The Dodgers will have to rely on a bullpen game not once but twice during the seven-game series, while the Mets’ pitching staff is quite solid. Kodai Senga had one rough pitch against Kyle Schwarber in his postseason debut but is expected to go deeper in his next outing. The fact that opposing hitters haven’t faced him in a year gives him an advantage.

The Mets’ ace, Jose Quintana, has been outstanding, allowing just three earned runs over his last eight starts, including two crucial postseason performances against the Brewers and Phillies. The level of dominance Quintana and the Mets have shown is remarkable, giving them a significant edge.

Kavner: I would favor the Dodgers’ bullpen here, but in a longer series where they can’t rely on their relievers every day, I have to lean towards the Mets overall. It’s surprising, given the circumstances earlier in the season. Yoshinobu Yamamoto had a solid start, but it’s tough to feel confident about the Dodgers’ rotation, especially since he can likely only pitch once in this series without going on short rest.

The Dodgers’ bullpen excelled in a five-game series, managing to hold the Padres scoreless for 24 consecutive innings. However, they may need multiple bullpen games, which can wear them out over a long series. The injury to Alex Vesia, who suffered an intercostal strain last series, is a significant loss, while the Mets’ Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana have both looked outstanding in October.

3. How would you arrange the Dodgers’ starting rotation for this series?

Kavner: We know Jack Flaherty will start Game 1, and the Dodgers will need him to go deep into the game. After that, I would use a bullpen game for Game 2, with Landon Knack taking the majority of the innings, whether as a starter or with an opener, allowing the relievers to rest on their off day before possibly facing three consecutive games. This setup would place Walker Buehler in Game 3 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 4, with Flaherty potentially returning for Game 5. There’s an off day before Game 6, so the Dodgers could reset their bullpen for another all-hands-on-deck game, with Buehler ready for a Game 7.

Thosar: I’d start with Jack Flaherty for Game 1, followed by Walker Buehler for Game 2, Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Game 3, and then a bullpen game for Game 4, repeating that order for the rest of the series. It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers stick to giving Yamamoto five days of rest instead of four, which could lead to two bullpen games and limit Yamamoto to just Game 4. However, this is the time to push him and risk using their ace on four days’ rest to maximize his impact, given their thin pitching staff. I’d try to avoid a second bullpen game if possible.

4. What is the Mets’ strategy for pulling off an upset?

Thosar: The Mets need their starters to pitch deep into games, while also focusing on getting on base and creating significant opportunities for Francisco Lindor. They hold an advantage over the Dodgers with their starting pitchers (including the impressive performances from David Peterson out of the bullpen), allowing them to manage their somewhat shaky bullpen effectively. If Senga, Quintana, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino can deliver 5-7 innings, it will help avoid overusing the bullpen. The Mets’ offense has generally been effective at passing the baton, maintaining composed at-bats, and trusting that big hits will come, even if it takes nine innings to take the lead.

Kavner: I think the Dodgers’ offense might be sufficient to win, but I wouldn’t consider it an upset if the Mets come out on top. Since June, they’ve been the best team in baseball. The Dodgers are dealing with a depleted rotation, a starting shortstop out for the series, and Freddie Freeman playing through injury. That said, despite the Mets’ knack for late-game heroics, they need to get off to early leads. If their lineup, one of the most productive this October, can score on Flaherty early, it could not only give them a leg up in the series by stealing a game in Los Angeles but also put the Dodgers in a difficult position due to their heavy reliance on the bullpen.

5. Who would the Yankees prefer to face: the Guardians or the Tigers?

Kavner: The Tigers. Detroit has been riding a wave of good vibes with a relatively unknown pitching staff (except for Tarik Skubal) through an impressive late-season run, but the Guardians have been the superior team overall, boasting Jose Ramírez and the best bullpen in baseball. Steven Kwan and Lane Thomas are also heating up at the right moment, potentially making Cleveland a more interesting matchup.

Thosar: The Tigers. Even with Tarik Skubal as the primary threat, after the Tigers and Guardians went to Game 5 and Detroit was forced to use him, that would limit Skubal to just one start in a potential ALCS unless it went to Game 7. The rest of Detroit’s rotation doesn’t present enough of a challenge for hitters like Judge, Juan Soto, and postseason standout Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees would likely outslug the Tigers, which is crucial in a seven-game series. Cleveland poses a greater threat in that aspect, particularly with Jose Ramírez leading their lineup.

Bonus: Who will win each LCS?
ALCS — Yankees vs. Guardians

• Thosar: Yankees. I think Cleveland will make it interesting, but the AL has become the Yankees’ to lose since the Astros were eliminated early. They have the advantage in both offense and rotation, and even the great Emmanuel Clase has shown he can be vulnerable.
• Kavner: Yankees. They’ve been in this situation before, and they now have an extra asset in Juan Soto, resulting in one of their deepest lineups in years. I expect Cleveland to help Judge overcome his postseason struggles, and Gerrit Cole to elevate his game due to past rivalries (yes, I’m referring to Josh Naylor’s memorable, yet silly, home run trot). This is the easiest path the Yankees have had to the World Series in years, and I’d be surprised if they become complacent at this critical moment.

NLCS — Dodgers vs. Mets

• Kavner: Dodgers. This matchup feels like a toss-up. Both teams are riding high after defeating what I consider to be the top two teams in the NL to get here. They’ll need to avoid any emotional letdowns, but I believe the Dodgers’ experience in these situations will give them the edge. Their offense should carry them in a series that could go the distance.
• Thosar: Mets. Pitching is crucial in October, and I’m not convinced the Dodgers have enough to sustain them over a long series. As I’ve mentioned, the Mets have the arms to succeed because they already have. Their most critical postseason games featured players like Quintana, Manaea, Peterson, and even Tylor Megill stepping up to keep their offense competitive. This depth in pitching is a significant asset, even against a talented Dodgers lineup.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports, previously covering the Mets for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and currently resides in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports, previously covering the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers, and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU graduate, Rowan was born in California, raised in Texas, and moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.